Calculated Risks

Two Toronto bike owners have calculated that the risk the City will come along and take away their bikes is not as great as the risk that their bikes will be stolen if they are not locked to the post that says "Do Not Lock Your Bike Here."

At the other end of the spectrum of risk calculation are great efforts that go into avoiding small risks.

For example, due to circumstances beyond my control, I recently found myself faced with the task of simultaneously recruiting four positions in my shop. Anyone familiar with the nightmare of excessively risk adverse public sector procurement knows that the only thing worse than that is even more excessively risk adverse public sector human resources recruitment.

Because these are confidential matters, I will describe fanciful circumstances to shed light on the real.

Once upon a time the ruler of small kingdom found herself short a few officials. Consulting with her advisors on how she might add to her bureaucracy, they all cautioned her of the grave danger that, among the many who could be asked to serve, one might be a witch.

"A witch?" asked the ruler. "Are you serious?"

"Very serious," all her advisors agreed, vigorously nodding their heads. "You can't be too careful about witches."

"OK then," said the ruler, "How do I guard myself against witches?"

"Easy," said her advisors. "You just plug your ears when they answer your questions at their interview."

"When you say they, are you referring to just the witches or all the candidates," asked the ruler.

"Oh," said her advisors, a bit surprised that their ruler was so stupid, "All of the candidates, because one of them might be a witch. Witches lure you with their spells you know."

"I see," said the ruler, worried that she might be appearing stupid. "But if I plug my ears, I won't be able to hear what any of the candidates say."

"That's right," said her smiling advisers, relieved that their ruler was not stupid after all.

"So let me just make sure I've got this right. Because one of the people I talk to may be a witch and lure me with spells, and, I suppose, get me to bring them into court where, again I'm speculating, they may do bad witchy things....?" The ruler trailed off to see how she was doing. 

Her advisors were enrapt. They nodded to encourage her.

"So, to avoid the chance of being lured into bad unknown witchy things, I will stop my ears and not hear any of my candidates so I won't know if they are bad or good, which will mean that I will make a decision based on no other information than how they look that day ...." The ruler stopped again.

"Yes! Yes!" Her advisors cheered. "Hooray for our wise and noble ruler!"

Distracted by the force of this extreme flattery, the ruler thanked her advisors, said goodbye and made one last observation.

"You know, if I can't hear any of the candidates, that means I still could recruit a witch, or maybe something even worse ..."

Demoralized by their ruler's sudden change in position, the advisors bowed their way backward out of the room, resolved to add blindfolds to the recruitment rules. 

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Have a great week!